Climate change poses a global challenge, with surface temperatures reaching unprecedented levels year after year. In the Paris Agreement (2015), countries committed to trying to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ℃ above pre-industrial levels. However, even if they fulfill their promises to reduce emissions, the UN still estimates an increase of around 2.7 ℃ by the end of the 21st century. The accumulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is directly linked to the use of fossil fuels in all sectors of the economy, particularly in electricity generation, transportation, and industry. Simultaneously, these sectors will be severely impacted by the effects of climate change, as consumption patterns across various sectors may be altered, affecting the supply and demand for electricity.

Renewable energies are often cited as one of the most promising solutions that the sector can offer to reduce GHGs. These rely on resources directly influenced by climatic variables and, therefore, will also be affected by the impacts of climate change throughout their lifecycle.

ACCIONA Energía is the world’s largest global energy company exclusively operating in renewable technologies. The company has facilities using wind, photovoltaic, hydroelectric, biomass, and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The impact of climate change on the availability of renewable resources in the medium and long term is being studied, which will directly affect the profitability of investments. It is equally important to understand the repercussions that climate change can have at the asset level, affecting their efficiency and lifespan.

In the case of wind power generation, climate change could lead to a reduction in the performance of wind turbines due to thermal losses, changes in resource availability, changes in operational behavior, and a shift in air density. All these factors would decrease the number of hours the wind farm operates at peak performance, reducing the amount of electricity generated in both existing and new installations. As for photovoltaic energy, over time, there could be a decrease in the performance of photovoltaic panels due to rising average temperatures. This would result in a reduction in electricity generation throughout the asset’s lifecycle, affecting the profitability of investments.

ACCIONA Energía is looking for solutions that enable the measurement and quantification of the impact of climate change on the profitability of its operational assets. Additionally, the company aims to use this climate intelligence for business development in new geographical markets. Therefore, the solution should enable ACCIONA Energía to assess at the plant and component levels, the effects of climate change to anticipate operational risks in its various plants worldwide. This includes planning and mitigating risks for future installations.

The solution proposed should:

• Provide information on the probability and incidence of extreme weather events at selected locations.
• Offer information on the climatic impact on resource availability in the chosen geographies (seasonal, annual, and multi-year forecasts).
• Provide information on the climatic impact at the park and different elements within it at selected plants for the pilot project (seasonal, annual, and multi-year forecasts). ACCIONA Energía’s project team will identify variables potentially affecting each element, and the solution should measure the probability of occurrence, frequency, and calculate the impact of risk in financial terms for the company.
• Facilitate the generation of different scenarios with various probability levels to estimate different levels of economic impact for the analyzed asset portfolio.
• Enable the calculation of the financial impact associated with identified climate risks at different levels of analysis.
• The solution’s ability to facilitate report generation for compliance with European regulations or international reporting obligations will also be valued.
• Allow for easy scaling to different plants and geographical locations where ACCIONA Energía

At the beginning of the pilot, the selection of plants and locations, as well as the technologies to be monitored throughout the pilot, will be provided (this point will be reviewed with the selected partner to properly define its scope).